February 22, 2024

Declan is a geopolitical risk analyst and intelligence manager based in Nairobi, Kenya. He possesses expertise in political and security risks across Africa, specializing in election security, terrorism, and transnational organized crime. As a strategic risk consultant, he advises diplomatic missions, humanitarian organizations, and multinationals on enterprise risk management and improving their security posture.

Top 3 Global Threats:

1. Regime Stability and Legitimacy: Major states across the continent of Africa face challenges to regime stability and legitimacy that are almost certain to weaken stability in the near to long term (i.e., from 1 month to five years). This concern applies to countries including Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Chad, Niger, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Mozambique, and Uganda.

2. Geopolitical Dynamics in Sudan and the Horn of Africa: These dynamics are very likely to exacerbate security risks in the medium term. The situation is governed primarily by competition between Gulf States, the intersecting interests of the US, China, and Russia, and the persistent significance of the Red Sea for international trade.

3. Cybersecurity Developments: Despite growing awareness in key sectors such as banking, infrastructure, and public administration, cybersecurity improvements across the continent of Africa are unlikely to keep pace with the evolving threats.

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